Analysis of Factors Influencing the Development of Farmers’ Resilience Capacity in the Zanjanrud Watershed in the Face of Water Scarcity

Over recent decades, the Zanjanrud River has faced a sharp decline in water resources due to reduced rainfall, well drilling, and excessive groundwater use. This situation has caused challenges such as the abandonment of villages and reduced resilience among local communities. Given the serious threat of this crisis to farmers’ livelihood security and regional food security, the study aimed to identify and analyze factors influencing the development of farmers’ resilience capacity in the Zanjanrud watershed under water scarcity conditions.The research population included farmers in the watershed (N = 21,651). Using Bartlett et al.’s table and stratified proportional sampling, 400 farmers were selected. Data were collected through a questionnaire, with validity confirmed by convergent and discriminant tests (AVE and Fornell – Larcker criterion) and reliability supported by Cronbach’s alpha and Composite Reliability (CR). Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) with path analysis was applied to assess resilience and its determinants. Findings showed that only 7.7% of farmers had strong resilience, while 92.3% demonstrated medium to weak levels. Political–institutional factors exerted the greatest influence on resilience (β = 0.361). Altogether, the investigated factors explained 84.5% of the variance in resilience capacity. The study concludes that strengthening educational and extension services, alongside reforming cropping patterns, can significantly enhance farmers’ resilience to water scarcity.