This study investigates the relationship between wheat cultivated area and the quantity of wheat delivered to guaranteed purchase centers in the Kadkan district of Torbat-Heydarieh, and further assesses the implications of this relationship for agricultural development and rural livelihoods. Data from 101 wheat producers who delivered their harvest during the 2023–2024 growing season were obtained from official procurement centers and the Kadkan Agricultural Services Center. A two-parameter logarithmic nonlinear regression model was employed to evaluate the relationship between cultivated area and delivery volume. Additionally, Ward’s hierarchical clustering and spatial analysis were used to classify villages based on performance.The results revealed a significant yet nonlinear relationship between cultivated area and delivered quantity (R² = 0.48). In several villages such as Dafi and Esfeez large cultivated areas were associated with disproportionately low delivery levels, reducing linear correlation and giving rise to a logarithmic pattern. Cluster analysis showed that only a limited number of villages accounted for the majority of wheat deliveries. Moreover, the delivered wheat generally met national quality standards across indicators such as moisture content, useful and non-useful impurities, and sprouting damage.

Overall, the findings highlight the need to enhance productivity and farm-management practices, particularly in regions characterized by small and fragmented landholdings. It is recommended that government support programs be designed based on village performance clusters and grounded in participatory development, targeted technical extension, and region-specific policymaking to improve agricultural performance and reinforce sustainable rural development