The recession of rural agriculture-based businesses is considered one of the fundamental challenges to sustainable development in rural areas. Understanding its internal and external mechanisms provides a basis for formulating effective policies to reduce vulnerability. Accordingly, this research aimed to conduct a chain analysis of this stagnation within the Til-Abad watershed carbon sequestration project area in Golestan Province. This study employed a descriptive-survey methodology. The statistical population included local experts and business owners from six villages in the study area, with 120 individuals purposively selected as the sample. Data were collected using a researcher-made questionnaire. To assess validity, content and face validity were applied, and convergent validity was examined by calculating the Average Variance Extracted (AVE) for each component. Reliability was evaluated using Cronbach's alpha coefficient and composite reliability. Following field data collection, analyses were performed at descriptive and inferential levels using SPSS25 and Smart PLS3 software. Results indicated that the three main constructs erosion, marginalization, and deactivation have a positive and significant relationship at the 99% confidence level. Based on the final model, over 61% of the variance in internal constructs is influenced by external pressures. The primary dimensions affecting internal stagnation were found to be institutional-managerial and financial-livelihood factors. Consequently, it is recommended to establish supportive credit systems, formulate sustainable economic policies, develop efficient local institutions, and create local markets. These measures can lay the groundwork for reducing stagnation and enhancing the resilience of rural agriculture-based businesses.